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Important.
The market has rewarded bullishness, with recent predictions of a bottom proving accurate and leading to significant gains in tech and hardware, boosted by SpaceX/Intel news. Bank of America now concurs, calling the ceasefire "durable" and a catalyst for a "sustained bullish recovery" across risk assets, suggesting peak yields are behind us.
Despite elevated oil prices, long-term inflation expectations indicate a potential calming rather than stagflation.
The software sector, still 30-35% off peaks, shows historically low hedge fund exposure. While some short-selling persists, the speaker sees this as a long-term buying opportunity for strong companies, aligning with a "buy when there's blood in the streets" strategy.
Geopolitically, the ceasefire appears to be holding, with no major attacks or breaches of the 'selective' blockade on Iranian ports. UN talks are expected to resume.
NO ONE IS TALKING ABOUT THIS: CRITICAL
The speaker is increasingly bullish on the economy, raising his Bear Bull scale to 7.1 and allocating more to stocks. This optimism stems from significantly underreported economic data, particularly strong private sector job growth.
Recent ADP employment reports show weekly job gains skyrocketing from low thousands earlier this year to over 40,000 in late March and 54,000 in early April. This translates to monthly gains of 160,000 to 218,000 jobs, indicating a strengthening labor market that is not just stabilizing but growing. This trend is partly due to slowed immigration enforcement and AI actually *creating* jobs by boosting efficiency for roles like radiologists and software engineers.
Further supporting this, private credit is stabilizing, and real estate remains robust in many regions. While geopolitical issues will lead to higher-for-longer oil prices, the speaker believes existing household and stock market wealth can absorb this impact. Despite potential BLS data manipulation suggesting higher true unemployment, the underlying ADP trends are very positive, leading to increased confidence in the economy's strength.
f**k
Donald Trump has unilaterally extended the ceasefire with Iran indefinitely, despite earlier threats to resume strikes. This extension includes maintaining a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, causing Brent crude oil to surge towards $100 per barrel.
Iran's parliament advisor views Trump's extension as a deceptive ploy for a surprise strike, urging Iran to take initiative. Iran considers the blockade equivalent to military action, threatening a forceful response and stating the "losing side cannot dictate terms." Trump claims Iran's government is fractured and the extension was at Pakistan's request, though his narrative on Iran's regime has been inconsistent.
The market, which had hoped for clarity, now faces prolonged uncertainty, leading to predictions of "higher for longer" oil prices. Iran's state news agency has threatened to break the blockade by force if it persists, escalating tensions and posing a direct threat to US Navy personnel. A continued blockade could lead to a recession.
Trump JUST *Flip Flopped* AGAIN!
The Strait of Hormuz is in a "Schrodinger's cat" state, leading to the largest cumulative oil shortfall in 50 years. This "higher for longer" oil scenario is dragging on an otherwise resilient economy. Airlines, operating on thin margins, face unprofitability due to skyrocketing fuel prices, not a physical shortage, making critical Iran negotiations this week vital to restore oil flow and prevent further inflation.
Despite the economy's "tightrope walk" resilience, caution is advised due to persistent, self-fulfilling recession risks, with the CNN Greed and Fear index currently signaling "greed." Political instability is evident in Donald Trump's flip-flopping on negotiation deadlines and envoys. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs reports that 70% of the S&P 500's recent rise is attributable to a single, concentrated factor.
TRUMP IS PISSED: PREPARE FOR TUESDAY
A US Navy vessel fired upon and boarded an Iranian ship in the Arabian Sea, escalating tensions and causing market futures (Dow, S&P, Nasdaq) to drop. The US action was described as enforcing a blockade, with a 5-inch cannon fired at the Iranian ship's engine room to disable it, not to harm the crew.
This incident raises questions about the ceasefire's status. President Trump is employing an "escalate to de-escalate" strategy, threatening to target Iranian bridges and power plants if a deal isn't signed. Negotiations are ongoing, with US envoys sent to Islamabad. The speaker believes Trump will extend the ceasefire if a deal isn't reached by Tuesday. The UAE is also reportedly considering a preemptive bailout due to potential war impacts on oil and gas flow.
So WTF now...
This transcript covers several critical geopolitical and market-related issues:
The Wall Street Journal questions President Trump's declared victory over Iran, suggesting it's premature and driven by market pressure, potentially making future negotiations harder. Confusion persists regarding the Strait of Hormuz, with reports indicating Iran's terms for passage haven't changed, and ships are still being turned away.
Meanwhile, the New York Times highlights Pickaxe Mountain, an untouched, deeply buried Iranian facility suspected of housing enriched uranium, with ongoing work to harden its entrances. Iran also acquired a Chinese satellite to surveil US bases in the Middle East, raising concerns about targeting capabilities.
Finally, Bank of America's game theory analysis suggests the stock market anticipates Trump's de-escalation whenever stocks fall, leading to muted market reactions during conflicts and potentially encouraging further escalation.
This Changes Everything.
Iran's foreign minister announced the Strait of Hormuz is now completely open for commercial vessels during the Lebanon ceasefire. This is hailed as very positive news, following optimism about a potential long-term agreement on Iranian nuclear restrictions.
As a direct result, oil prices are falling (currently in the low $80s), and interest rates are also declining, with the 10-year Treasury at 4.24%. Crucially, the probability of further rate hikes has plummeted to just 0.3%, making a rate cut this year a near coin toss – the best outlook in a while, as Goldman Sachs notes market recovery hinges on rate relief.
The speaker cautions that upcoming "bad data" from the past 6-7 weeks (inflation, consumer expectations, retail sales) will likely be discounted by markets as a product of wartime conditions. This development is considered "really bullish," pushing out "leftover bears," and presents continued "buying the dip" opportunities.
Trump JUST **Announced** Big Iran U-Turn
Donald Trump announced a potential agreement with Iran this weekend, stating Iran will not have nuclear weapons for over 20 years and will return highly enriched uranium (enough for 10-11 bombs). He linked an Israeli-Lebanese ceasefire to this, suggesting Hezbollah's inclusion, and emphasized continuing the Hormuz blockade. However, fighting could resume if no deal is reached by the weekend, as the current ceasefire ends on the 21st.
Meanwhile, the NASDAQ 100 is currently overbought, prompting advice to consider taking profits or rolling options due to expected volatility. Separately, Michael Burry recently bought several software stocks, including PayPal, Salesforce, and Adobe, aligning with the speaker's positive outlook on the software sector. Finally, the International Energy Administration warned Europe could face a jet fuel shortage in six weeks, coinciding with peak travel season, due to its heavy reliance on Middle Eastern energy imports.
This Changes EVERYTHING for Stocks.
The market is at all-time highs as SpaceX's roadshow and potential IPO approach. A key development is a strategic partnership between SpaceX and Intel. Intel previously faced uncertainty about expanding advanced chip manufacturing (14A/18A fabs) due to a lack of customers. SpaceX's involvement now appears to be the critical catalyst, enabling Intel's advanced chip production.
This partnership significantly derisks chip development for SpaceX and Tesla, especially after their prior Dojo chip challenges, by leveraging Intel's manufacturing capabilities and securing a vital supply chain. The speaker suggests Elon Inc. will likely fund Intel's fabs, shifting manufacturing risk to Intel while securing supply for SpaceX/Tesla. The transcript also noted successful "buy the dip" calls on Microsoft, highlighting its impressive 68% gross profit margins, and Blue Owl Capital.
Crap: The Real Danger NOW
Markets reacted positively to the US blockade of Iran, with the market bottoming and recovering strongly. The US strategy aims to economically pressure Iran by blocking oil exports, especially to China, which accounts for 80% of Iran's oil. This blockade could cost Iran $435 million daily, risking hyperinflation and potential regime change.
China, now facing higher oil costs, is incentivized to restore stability and has announced its readiness to play a constructive role in Middle East peace. The greatest risk remains military escalation, with potential Iranian attacks on US warships enforcing the blockade. This situation is already driving up global oil prices and reducing the odds of a rate cut. The International Financial Stability Board warns of multiple financial vulnerabilities, and Hezbollah's rejection of talks further highlights the region's volatile state. This aggressive approach contrasts with previous diplomatic efforts like the JCPOA.
*SH*T* IRAN TALKS JUST COLLAPSED
Talks between the US and Iran have broken down, with the US delegation returning without a deal after 21 hours of negotiations. Iran demanded control over the Strait of Hormuz, including tolls, and the right to nuclear enrichment, which it considers a "god-given right."
The US firmly opposes Iran developing nuclear weapons and rejects its demands for Hormuz control. The US presented a "best and final offer" with no nuclear enrichment and no tolls for Iran, a position mirroring pre-ceasefire terms.
Currently, Iran effectively controls the Strait of Hormuz, significantly reducing commercial traffic due to perceived threats and demands for fees. JD Vance emphasized the US requires an affirmative commitment from Iran to prevent nuclear weapon development, which was not achieved. Iran, conversely, blames US "excessive demands." The future of diplomacy remains uncertain.
TOTAL SH*T SHOW
Ceasefire negotiations have failed due to poorly defined plans and Lebanon's exclusion, with Israel now occupying parts of Lebanon. A mysterious insider made $170 million from war-related bets. A significant US miscalculation led to Iran gaining control of the Strait of Hormuz, severely disrupting shipping and pushing oil prices "higher for longer." Iran's planned $1/barrel tax on tankers adds further logistical challenges. The IMF has downgraded global growth for two years due to the conflict's damage. Crucially, key US objectives, such as dismantling Iran's nuclear facilities and ending uranium enrichment, remain unmet, with initial Israeli war goals deemed "farcical" by US intelligence.
SoFi Is About To Blow Everyone's Mind
SoFi's upcoming earnings report (Q1) is expected to continue its trend of consistently beating market expectations. The speaker highlights that SoFi has surpassed EPS and revenue forecasts every quarter.
While the market predicts Q1 EPS at 12 cents and revenue just over $1 billion, the speaker believes these are too conservative, projecting $1.08-1.09 billion in revenue and 13 cents EPS. They also view SoFi's Fiscal Year 2026 guidance (30% revenue growth, 52% EBITDA growth) as "underpromising," expecting the company to over-deliver.
Despite the stock being down 13% year-to-date and potential zero rate cuts, the speaker is confident in SoFi's execution, predicting continued 30% annual revenue growth and 38-42% EPS growth, positioning it as a potential $100 billion company that will reach new all-time highs.
Some of My Stocks Worry Me. Here's the Full Truth.
The Kosh investing portfolio had an excellent week, up 11.2% (10.39% YTD), significantly outperforming the S&P 500 due to positive headlines in a headline-driven market. Probabilities for a 2026 rate cut are increasing, with a 38.3% chance of one 25bps cut.
Next week's earnings include United Health, Tesla, ServiceNow, and Intel, though major tech reports are expected the following week. Market data suggests historically positive returns after recent V-shaped recoveries. The AI investor sentiment survey is deemed outdated, while the Fear & Greed index indicates "greed."
In Gen AI, Gemini continues to gain market share from ChatGPT, with the overall market expanding. Reddit traffic has surpassed Wikipedia. The "SAS apocalypse" discussion continues, highlighted by Salesforce's new "Headless 360" allowing platform data use without direct login, a potentially significant shift for software. The speaker emphasizes making portfolio decisions that ensure personal comfort.
The Most Hated Stock in My Portfolio Is About to Have Its Moment
Today's market saw a generally good day, especially for tech, though Netflix dipped after hours. The speaker advised against market timing, encouraging investors to seize opportunities.
TSMC reported a very strong quarter: Revenue surged 40.6%, net profit 58.3%, and gross margin rose 7.4 percentage points year-over-year. Growth was driven by leading-edge demand, with 3nm and advanced nodes making up 74% of wafer revenue. Their Q2 revenue guidance of $39-42 billion significantly beat expectations, signaling continued robust AI and HPC demand.
Netflix had a good Q1 with revenue up 16% and EPS up 86%, though these figures were significantly boosted by a $2.8 billion Warner termination fee. The stock dropped 9% after hours due to weaker-than-expected Q2 revenue and EPS guidance. However, full-year revenue guidance remains unchanged, and free cash flow guidance was raised. Management highlighted organic growth, content, AI-driven recommendations, and strong monetization through pricing and ads, targeting $3 billion in ad revenue by 2026.
5 Stocks I'm Most Bullish On After the Rebound
The stock market is experiencing a strong "V-shaped" recovery, led primarily by the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks. While big tech is surging, some cybersecurity and SaaS names are down, indicating a market decoupling. Fintech and neo-cloud stocks are also performing well.
Amazon is acquiring Global Star to integrate its satellite assets into Amazon's LEO network. This will enable direct-to-smartphone satellite services by 2028 and includes a partnership with Apple to power iPhone/Apple Watch satellite features. This strategic move expands Amazon's market and positions it to compete with Starlink, with analysts reiterating a "Buy" rating.
Robinhood received an "Outperform" rating with a $130 target, driven by anticipated crypto recovery and significant growth in prediction markets, evidenced by record trading volumes on its partner platform, Kalshi. Robinhood is also expanding into banking and advisory services, with Q1 earnings expected soon.
Finally, the speaker revisited and adjusted a previously conservative Microsoft DCF model, with updated results now available.
I Just Sold $11K and Bought $2K This Week
The Couch Investing portfolio was up over 9% last week (S&P up 3.6%), bringing its year-to-date performance to -8%, nearing break-even. Since inception, it's up close to 150%.
The investor reduced their Core Weave position after a 10-12% gain to reallocate funds, and significantly added to SoFi, believing its current valuation is "ridiculous" and expecting another strong earnings beat. Nebius continues to be a top performer, now 18% of the portfolio. Other key holdings like Google, AMD, Meta, and Micron are also performing well.
Upcoming discussions will cover Fed cut probabilities (market expects zero cuts in 2026), major earnings reports from banks, ASML, TSMC, and Netflix. The transcript also touches on AI comparisons (Anthropic, Convolt/Rubric, Meta's Muse Spark) and notes recent positive market streaks for the NASDAQ and S&P 500.
You Will Regret Not Buying SoFi Stock Under $18!
This transcript questions if SoFi's current price under $18 is a last-chance buying opportunity, similar to a past call under $10. Despite a recent market rally, SoFi pulled back to $16.40, remaining 40% down year-to-date.
The speaker highlights SoFi's strong fundamentals: rapid growth expectations (30% compounded revenue), recent business expansions into business banking, $3.6 billion in new loan platform agreements, and a Mastercard stablecoin partnership. SoFi also boasts high brand recognition, ranking #1 in JD Power's DIY investor satisfaction and #1 in Forbes' "World's Best Banks 2026" for the US.
Upcoming Q1 earnings are anticipated to show "triple beats" with significant year-over-year growth. The speaker considers SoFi under $18 an "easy buy," projecting a long-term value significantly higher than current levels. A DCF analysis suggests a probability-weighted implied price around $25, offering over 50% upside, with a bull case reaching $34.
Ah F**K
Donald Trump has announced an immediate naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, targeting all ships entering or leaving, and those paying tolls to Iran. The speaker warns this carries significant risks.
The narrow Strait of Hormuz makes US ships vulnerable to Iranian drone swarms, which can launch from coastal mountains with a 30-mile range. A simple outer blockade is insufficient; if Iran can still attack ships *within* the strait, insurance companies will halt all traffic, causing a standstill. True control would require the US to "green zone" the strait, a difficult task complicated by extensive Iranian mine threats.
Trump previously hinted at the US charging tolls, suggesting the blockade's real aim might be control and tariffs. While it eliminates Iranian oil, hurting China, China also benefits by observing a real-world blockade test, potentially for a Taiwan scenario. Russia benefits from rising oil prices and intelligence sharing, creating a complex "quagmire."
CRAP | THIS IS IT
Crucial negotiations begin tomorrow in Islamabad, Pakistan, with JD Vance, Jared Kushner, and Witkoff representing the US in talks with Iran. Vance's political future, including a potential 2028 VP run, is significantly tied to these discussions. Donald Trump has declared he's "reloading" ships with "best weapons ever made" for "complete decimation" if no deal is reached, signaling a readiness for military action.
Key sticking points include Iran's nuclear enrichment program, with internal disagreements among Iranian negotiators, and the ongoing conflict in Lebanon. Some speculate Trump's aggressive rhetoric about using up old weapons and restocking is a deliberate strategy to stimulate the US defense industry. Negotiations commence tonight for US audiences, with initial reports expected to be cautiously optimistic.
No opinions for this video.
CEASEFIRE COLLAPSING
The Middle East is experiencing rapid escalation: The Strait of Hormuz is reportedly closed by Iran following an Iranian drone attack on a Saudi pipeline and Israeli strikes in Lebanon that killed dozens.
The recent 10-point ceasefire is collapsing, with both Iran and Israel blaming each other. A major point of contention is Lebanon's inclusion; Iran insists it was part of the deal, along with uranium enrichment, which the US side allegedly omitted. Trump and others now deny Lebanon's inclusion.
Adding to the confusion, reports suggest the White House pushed Pakistan to broker the initial truce. Despite the ceasefire plan, Trump is imposing new tariffs on countries supplying weapons to Iran.
Iran is stopping tankers in Hormuz, demanding permission or threatening destruction. Regional attacks are widespread, with multiple countries reporting missile and drone strikes. Israel opposes Lebanon's inclusion, while Iran demands the return of seized assets. The situation remains highly volatile.
4 Stocks to Load Up on Before Earnings
This video discusses the strategy of buying stocks *before* earnings reports, acknowledging it's a gamble with many names already "priced in." The speaker advises long-term investors to open a small position pre-earnings, viewing a stock drop on good news as a prime buying opportunity.
Caution is highlighted for software companies like Adobe and Salesforce, as AI is shifting business models, leading to market re-ratings and uncertainty. The upcoming weeks feature a packed earnings calendar with major tech players.
Specific pre-earnings buys discussed include:
* **Meta:** Considered a "must-have" at current prices, recommended for its attractive valuation and long-term ownership potential, regardless of immediate post-earnings movement.
* **SoFi:** The speaker is "extremely bullish," predicting strong earnings and raised guidance despite macro adjustments, seeing it as undervalued given its growth.
Should You Buy These 5 Stocks Before April 29?
Next week marks a critical tech earnings season, with Wednesday being particularly packed. Major companies like Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, SoFi, and Qualcomm are set to report. Apple follows on Thursday, with attention on Tim Cook's CEO transition. The market currently remains uncertain due to external factors.
The speaker is bullish on **Meta**, having bought aggressively, expecting strong performance. Key points for Meta's report include capex, data center buildout, and the monetization strategy for its new AI model, Muse Spark.
For **Microsoft**, investors will focus on continued cloud growth, enterprise Copilot adoption, and Azure revenue, previously guided for 37-38% constant currency growth. Guidance details are typically revealed during the earnings call.
If This Market Drops Again, I'm Buying These 5 Stocks Immediately
Today, markets are largely green, boosting portfolios, though Netflix is down 10% after a soft Q2 report. Energy, Adobe, Duolingo, and AS are also in the red. The speaker notes the market, including the S&P, is currently overbought, suggesting a potential pullback despite a swift recovery from recent dips. He plans to accumulate more shares of specific stocks if a dip occurs.
His top picks for a pullback are:
1. **Nebus:** A hyper-growth company, up 75% year-to-date and nearing a $40 billion valuation. The speaker emphasizes its projected explosive revenue growth, targeting $7-9 billion annualized run rate (ARR) by late 2026 and tens of billions in future years, making it an early investment opportunity. He'd buy more if it returns to the low hundreds.
2. **SoFi:** Despite being down 27.5% year-to-date, it's up 25% from its recent bottom and is considered a stronger company now at a lower price. With a forward P/E of 30x and an anticipated "triple beat" in upcoming earnings, any dip below $20 is seen as a significant buying opportunity.
Don't Believe The Bears! The Repricing Just Started
Today's market was mixed, with many semiconductor stocks, including ASML, seeing red. ASML reported strong Q1 earnings, beating sales and EPS estimates, but its Q2 guidance was soft. This likely drove the stock's 4.1% dip, despite management reaffirming a robust long-term outlook fueled by strong AI demand and supply constraints in advanced memory and logic extending beyond 2026.
In other news, fintech platforms like Weeble and Robinhood surged nearly 10% after a rule requiring $25,000 for margin trading was removed, potentially boosting retail trading. Big tech, including Tesla and Microsoft, also saw gains, as did cybersecurity stocks.
Meta expanded its partnership with Broadcom to co-develop custom AI silicon, a strategic move for vertical integration and cost control. Despite Meta's recent stock rally, a discounted cash flow analysis still projects significant upside, with a base case showing 27.4% potential based on realistic growth and margin improvement.
The Stocks Everyone Was Panicking About Just Bounced. Here's What's Next
This week started strong for SAS and cybersecurity stocks, with Oracle and Intel seeing significant gains, though the speaker questions if this signals a true market bottom, awaiting upcoming earnings.
A report suggests Meta could surpass Google in net digital ad revenue by 2026/2027, largely due to Google's higher traffic acquisition costs. Both companies are still considered strong.
OpenAI's internal memo indicated a growing alliance with Amazon, claiming its Microsoft partnership "limited" enterprise reach. This highlights efforts to diversify, despite Microsoft's substantial investment in OpenAI. Goldman Sachs projects AI infrastructure will drive 40% of S&P 500 EPS growth by 2026.
Amazon's AWS revenue re-acceleration is noted, with the speaker deeming $300/share "inevitable" if growth continues. Microsoft's DCF analysis shows a probability-weighted fair value 10.1% higher than its current price, with future capex spend being a key factor in its valuation scenarios.
The Most Hated Name In the Market Right Now Is a Screaming Buy
The speaker details a significant, ongoing sell-off in software and cybersecurity stocks, driven by fears that AI could replace their offerings. Despite strong fundamentals, Microsoft has seen a 31.2% drawdown, prompting the speaker to ask if it's "too cheap to ignore."
In contrast, Meta's stock recently surged 11.3% with the launch of its "Muse Spark" AI model, which dramatically improves its competitive standing. The speaker asserts Meta is "back in the game," well-positioned for monetization through its massive user base and AI-driven products, making it a compelling investment despite recent gains.
4 Growth Stocks Down Bad That Will Bounce Back Quickly
The market is currently volatile and largely "red," but the speaker advocates a long-term investment strategy, urging against selling "quality names" despite current dips. Expect continued volatility from geopolitical deadlines and the upcoming earnings season, which could bring lower corporate guidance. Raising cash is suggested.
SoFi is highlighted as a "no-brainer" long-term buy. Despite a 40% year-to-date drop, the business is stronger, boasting record website traffic and significant earnings potential, with a projected return to $30. Robinhood, a newer, cyclical position, is also down but is diversifying and benefits from sustained higher interest rates, though its crypto revenue fluctuates with market sentiment.