Read summaries – Top Trends

DO NOT F*** This Up‼️

The stock market is experiencing a significant downturn, with the Dow Jones down over 4,000 points and numerous individual stocks, including major tech like Meta and Nvidia, seeing substantial drops from their highs. Despite this widespread fear, the speaker strongly advocates for buying stocks "heavy heavy" right now. He argues that current high interest rates (e.g., 30-year mortgages at 6.36%, credit cards near 20%, used car loans at 11%) make taking on debt for homes or cars financially unattractive, making stocks the better short-term investment. Market sentiment indicators, such as the Fear & Greed Index showing "extreme fear" and AI investor sentiment trending bearish, are presented as contrarian signals indicating a prime buying opportunity. Google searches for "how to buy stocks" have also dropped, further suggesting public disinterest often coincides with good buying times. The speaker urges continuous, aggressive stock purchases, sharing that he personally avoids loans for major purchases.

Stock Market Drops 3,000+ points‼️

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen over 3,000 points this month, prompting a search for investment opportunities. The speaker identifies **Microsoft** as a strong "buy," citing robust Azure growth and attractive valuation, even considering it for his personal portfolio. While **Apple** is a fine buy, Microsoft offers more potential. However, **Meta** is significantly held back by its "ridiculous" $130 billion capital expenditure on metaverse projects, raising major ROI concerns. **Micron's** stock surprisingly fell despite "shockingly good" earnings, prompting questions about the market's current logic. The speaker also expresses concern about AI disrupting travel booking intermediaries and a slowing economy impacting banking stocks like JP Morgan. A free portfolio management workshop is also available.

I'm going to sell it all

The stock market is experiencing significant drama, with the NASDAQ down nearly 10% and the Dow losing 5,000 points from its highs. Market concerns have shifted from overvaluation fears to recession worries. The speaker plans to address the legitimacy of these economic concerns, a major portfolio sell he's making, and how much lower the market could go. He notes the unemployment rate is a healthy 4.5%, not yet signaling a recession. However, he highlights the "velocity of money"—how often currency is spent—which, after decades of decline, has rebounded since COVID-19 to mid-90s levels, raising questions about its sustainability. Most critically, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, after shrinking, has *recently begun to increase again*. This is a potential red flag, as the Fed typically expands its balance sheet during difficult economic times, suggesting underlying issues despite the current market downturn.

Most Investors Are Missing This Massive Opportunity

Despite widespread investor nervousness driven by war, rising oil, inflation, and Fed concerns, the speaker argues that focusing on fear blinds people to a significant, early opportunity in AI and tech. While the crowd is distracted by headlines, a massive, real-world "buildout" is occurring – involving substantial spending, deployment, and infrastructure development (hardware, manufacturing, data centers, power, cooling). Many believe the AI opportunity is over, but the speaker contends that major tech shifts, like smartphones, often have an initial surge followed by a much larger, sustained expansion as the ecosystem matures. The physical buildout for AI continues rapidly, creating demand for essential components. The speaker identifies three critical areas for investment within this ongoing buildout: 1. **Raw engine power:** The compute needed to drive AI (e.g., Nvidia). 2. **Advanced manufacturing:** Producing the necessary chips at scale (e.g., Taiwan Semiconductor). 3. **Physical deployment:** Supporting the hardware, power, and cooling in the real world (e.g., Vertiv). The core message is to not let fear obscure the substantial, foundational growth still unfolding in AI.

Most AI Investors Are Looking in the Wrong Place

AI's growth is constrained by power, not just chips. While investors focus on GPU demand, the speaker argues that AI is becoming a physical infrastructure buildout story, with massive electricity requirements that the system cannot add overnight. This creates a significant gap between AI demand and actual deployment. The best chips are useless if power cannot reach data centers through a complex chain from the grid to the rack. Many investors miss this crucial physical bottleneck. Companies solving these power delivery and support challenges, especially those close to deployment, may be undervalued. The speaker recommends focusing on specific bottlenecks rather than broad themes. Examples include Vertiv (VRT) for power and thermal support at the rack level, and Eaton for electrical infrastructure. Bloom Energy is mentioned as a higher-risk, optional extension for on-site power. Risks include overvaluation, other potential bottlenecks (cooling, networking), and lazy investing. The key is disciplined focus on companies directly solving the physical power constraint for AI deployment.

CRAP: 24 Hours LEFT.

The US has issued a 24-hour ultimatum to Iran: fully open the Strait of Hormuz or face American strikes on its power plants and vital infrastructure. This follows President Trump's recent flip-flopping on securing the Strait, initially committing US forces, then seeking allies, then stating allies weren't needed, and even suggesting a winding down of conflict, before this drastic escalation. Iran has defiantly responded, vowing to completely close the Strait if its energy infrastructure is attacked, and threatening to target Israeli and regional ally infrastructure. Trump himself acknowledged that striking Iran would cause oil prices to rise. The situation risks broader regional destabilization: Gulf Arab nations warn against damaging critical facilities, while Houthi threats could disrupt Saudi oil pipelines to the Red Sea. Concurrently, Israel's intense attacks in Lebanon raise fears of an invasion, further escalating instability. While 22 nations have condemned Iran's actions, there's no clear sign of concrete international intervention to secure the Strait, leaving the region on the brink.

DOUBLE Fed Rate Hikes as Trump sends MORE TROOPS!

The US is significantly increasing its military presence in the Middle East, deploying thousands of Marines and sailors via two expeditionary units. This move is partly aimed at reopening the critical Strait of Hormuz and potentially taking Iran's Car Island as leverage. This escalating tension is driving oil prices sharply higher, with Saudi Arabia predicting $150-180 a barrel if the crisis continues into April, a level Goldman Sachs deems recessionary. The current oil shock is already worse than 2022's. Consequently, markets are now pricing in interest rate hikes, with the ECB discussing increases and US futures showing a nearly 50% chance of a hike by October. Rising Treasury yields are already causing market sell-offs, with the S&P 500 below its 200-day average, and JPMorgan warning of a 10% correction and increased recession odds. Iran benefits from prolonged conflict and high oil prices, exacerbating global economic risks.

f**k

Iran's attacks are escalating, targeting regional oil and natural gas facilities, pushing Brent crude to $111/barrel, with forecasts of $120-$150 if the conflict persists, a price point considered a recessionary trigger. An ex-Trump administration ally warns the US economy is too weak to handle oil at $100/barrel, citing worsening inflation, flat disposable income, declining savings, and a lack of job growth, with the economy potentially generating net-zero jobs. The Pentagon is seeking over $200 billion for the war, suggesting a prolonged conflict, though approval is uncertain. Republicans are concerned about high oil prices impacting upcoming elections, as consumer weakness remains a significant economic vulnerability.

Stocks I'm Buying and Selling Right Now

The Couch Investing portfolio was down 0.53% last week, outperforming the S&P's 2% drop. Year-to-date, the portfolio is down 7.2%, while since inception, it's up 133.7%. Key portfolio changes include selling Duolingo and Pagaya at a loss to initiate a position in NU (Nu Holdings). The speaker prefers NU's vision and management, emphasizing the strategy of moving to better opportunities rather than holding onto underperforming stocks out of sentiment. Positions in Meta and Netflix were significantly increased. The speaker sees Meta as an excellent investment opportunity, comparing it to Google in 2015. SoFi's macro environment is noted as a bigger risk than short-seller reports, while Oscar's current valuation is considered undervalued. The portfolio maintains a decent cash position for future opportunities. Regarding the upcoming Fed meeting, there's now a 12.4% chance of a 25 basis point rate increase, up from 0% a week ago, though the speaker believes a hike is "probably not" going to happen.

Wall Street Is Making a Huge Mistake

The market is broadly down, with big tech and semiconductors mostly red, though The Local surged on strong earnings. Micron fell 5% despite a blockbuster quarter. Jerome Powell announced the Fed held rates steady, with expectations for only one rate cut in 2026 and 2027. Inflation and GDP growth expectations are both up, leaving the Fed "stuck." Powell noted uncertainty from the Middle East and expects some, but less than hoped, inflation progress by mid-year, dismissing stagflation. The market's signal of fewer rate cuts is hitting rate-sensitive stocks. Alibaba reported a slight revenue miss and a big EPS miss. While cloud revenue surged 36% and international losses improved, overall revenue growth was only 2%, and profitability metrics declined. The market is unconvinced, awaiting a rebound in net income. Micron delivered excellent results, beating all expectations with strong growth and expanding margins across segments. However, the stock dropped due to "peak cycle anxiety," concerns over increased capex leading to future oversupply, and lower margins on HBM compared to non-HBM DRAM, alongside demand concentration risk.

Trump FLIP FLOPS on Iran

Today's market experienced a "disaster" day, largely attributed to President Trump's constant flip-flopping on the Iran conflict, creating significant market uncertainty. The 10-year Treasury yield skyrocketed to nearly 4.4%, and Brent oil prices rose to $112 a barrel. Trump's statements have been highly contradictory: * He initially declared the war "over" and "winning," then reversed to "not done yet" and sending more troops, even calling for "regime change." * He projected the conflict to last "4-5 weeks," then suggested it "could take forever," or that "what remains... could be taken out in an hour." * He proposed securing the Strait of Hormuz, then today indicated he "might not want to." * He demanded allied help, then dismissed it, saying, "We don't need your help anyway." This extreme unpredictability from the administration is causing "vertigo" in the market, leading to a significant sell-off, despite some after-hours recovery also linked to yet another change in his stance.

Stock Market Falls

The speaker advocates for low-debt real estate as a crucial diversifier against stock market volatility and a "piggy bank" to leverage during future zero-rate recessions. He predicts interest rates will be historically low by 2032, making the current decade (2022-2032) an ideal window to buy real estate and refinance later. Currently, the market is bearish due to a significant Treasury market sell-off, pushing bond yields higher (10-year at 4.36%). This is the primary "canary in the coal mine." Crucially, markets are now pricing in a 30-33% chance of an interest rate hike by October/December, with earlier rate cut expectations having evaporated. Rising rates are impacting companies like Tesla, making vehicle financing more expensive. Tesla's valuation heavily depends on future products like RoboTaxi and Optimus, which inherently face development delays, contributing to bearish sentiment. Additionally, the US is deploying more troops to the Middle East. Overall, rising interest rates are burdening all forms of credit and borrowing.

Reasons to be Bullish.

The economic outlook is uncertain due to escalating tensions with Iran. Despite de-escalation talks, Iran has attacked key oil refineries in Saudi Arabia (Seamref) and Israel (Haifa), the latter being critical for Israel's fuel supply. Iran warns of "zero restraint" if its infrastructure is struck again. The US is considering military options, with Marines potentially taking an Iranian island in the Strait of Hormuz (e.g., Hormuz or Car Island) to secure the strait or use as negotiation leverage. Amphibious units are expected next week. Iran's decentralized "mosaic style leadership" allows continued attacks, complicating negotiations. Iran believes prolonging the conflict will cause a global recession, higher oil prices, and stock market declines, pressuring the US. The European Central Bank warns a prolonged war could lead to a European recession by 2026 and inflation soaring to 6.3% by 2027, primarily due to skyrocketing oil prices.

You Can't Go Wrong Buying These Stocks

The market experienced another "red day," with tech stocks particularly hit, and the S&P 500 dropping 6.5% from its peak, now below its 200-day moving average. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) shares plunged 28% after a DOJ indictment linked individuals to the company for illegally diverting Nvidia AI servers to Chinese buyers. This raised significant governance and regulatory concerns, while competitor Dell saw a 6% gain. Amidst this uncertainty and significant ETF outflows, investors are shifting to defensive assets like cash. The speaker advises focusing on "no-brainer" big tech companies such as Microsoft, Meta, Google, and Amazon. These are seen as highly profitable, stable, and less risky, offering attractive valuations despite high AI-related capital expenditures. Microsoft, for instance, is highlighted for its 29% drawdown from its peak and strong operating margins. The speaker suggests that while AI capex growth rates may moderate, big tech will continue investing, making these companies potential buys before the market fully realizes their value.

AI’s Real Bottleneck

While many investors focus on AI chips, this perspective is too narrow. The true bottleneck for AI scaling isn't just the chips, but the massive power infrastructure required to run them. AI demands immense power that cannot be deployed quickly, making power availability, not chip technology, the potential limiting factor for AI's growth.