Markets are selling down as Donald Trump shifts focus, now prioritizing stopping Iran's nuclear ambitions over oil prices, even suggesting ground troops for the Strait of Hormuz. This marks a reversal from his earlier "almost done" rhetoric.
The conflict is escalating: seven ships were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz in 24 hours, and the FBI has warned California police of potential drone attacks off the coast.
Iran's new Supreme Leader has issued his first official message, threatening to expand the war, maintain the Strait's closure to pressure enemies, and demanding compensation for strikes. This unifies the country against external pressure, contrary to hopes for internal regime change.
Oil markets are significantly underestimating the risk of a prolonged conflict. Analysts warn of "shut-ins"—prolonged facility closures not yet priced in—and a shift from short-term volatility to long-term "attrition." Strategic oil releases offer only temporary relief, buying "minutes" rather than solving the core problem of war. Brent crude is now over $101, and even small price increases are causing market sell-offs as a longer war scenario is finally being priced in.
7 Stocks to Buy & Hold Forever‼️
This video introduces the first of seven Warren Buffett-inspired stocks to buy and hold forever: Amazon. The speaker highlights Amazon's incredible past returns and current discounted valuation.
Amazon's enduring strength comes from its dominant e-commerce business, its leading AWS cloud services, and a rapidly growing, highly profitable advertising segment. While current net margins are around 10%, there's significant long-term potential for 20%+ margins, projecting hundreds of billions in annual net income. Amazon is heavily investing in AI, a strategic spend that, like past investments in e-commerce infrastructure and AWS, is expected to drive massive future revenue and profit growth over decades.
Nasdaq down 7.77%‼️ DO THIS NOW
The NASDAQ is currently experiencing a "nice-sized small correction," down 7.77% from its all-time highs. The speaker argues that historically, a 7.77% dip in the NASDAQ has *always* been a great time to buy. While acknowledging that markets can drop further (as seen in the tech bubble, 2008, or 2022), the core message is that even at this initial decline, it's a prime opportunity for long-term investors to acquire quality tech stocks. The speaker cautions against perpetually waiting for lower prices, which often leads to missing out and eventually buying at new market peaks. For those not yet retired and actively investing, the advice is to seize these current market "deals" as a gift for future growth.
The Real AI Stock Map #stocks
Many investors mistakenly group all AI stocks. However, Palantir demonstrates real AI monetization and strong execution, not just hype. The company reported impressive figures including 70% revenue growth, 137% US commercial growth, and a Rule of 40 score of 127. These numbers highlight Palantir's robust performance.
Palantir Down 27%
Palantir's stock is down 27%, a decline the speaker believes many investors are misinterpreting. While the stock faces pressure, the underlying business remains strong. This distinction is crucial: when market fear impacts the stock but the product continues to improve, it often signals an opportunity rather than a warning.
Palantir Is Down 27% — And I’m Not Selling
Despite market volatility and geopolitical fears causing a recent dip, the speaker argues Palantir presents a significant opportunity, not a warning. While many see a high-risk, expensive stock, the real story is its increasing business relevance.
Palantir's software is mission-critical for making faster, better decisions from messy data in high-stakes environments, proven by its use in defense but with broader commercial upside. The company boasts elite financials: 70% revenue growth (137% US commercial), strong profitability (41% GAAP operating margin, 56% free cash flow margin), and an "absurd" Rule of 40 at 127. These numbers demonstrate real AI monetization, not just hype.
The speaker contends that a high PE is typical for major growth winners (like Google, Amazon) in their early stages, and Palantir's metrics justify its premium. Investors should separate stock noise from business strength, recognize Palantir's unique utility in the AI stack, and practice disciplined position sizing, as fear alone isn't a reason to sell a fundamentally strong, growing business.
WARNING: This Recession Will be WORSE than 2008.
A "doomer" who predicted the 2008 crisis now warns of a potentially worse financial crisis ahead, driven by four interconnected factors.
Leading economic indicators (LEI) from Moody's show a 49% recession probability in the next 12 months, similar to pre-recession levels in 2008 and COVID-19, primarily due to weak labor markets. Ed Yardeni also warns against "buying the dip," noting the highest S&P 500 put option skew since 2021, suggesting markets may be underpricing the Iran conflict.
The four critical, intertwined factors are:
1. **Private Credit:** Fuels AI, but is under stress, with major funders like Blue Owl cratering. Iran issues are increasing interest rates for private credit.
2. **Artificial Intelligence (AI):** Fueled by private credit, but facing innovation slowdowns (Sam Altman on AGI) and layoffs (Meta).
3. **Iran Issues:** Beyond increasing private credit rates, it disrupts helium production (from oil/gas), essential for chip manufacturing, making AI more expensive.
4. **Taiwan Invasion Threat:** A potential Chinese invasion would severely limit global chip production (TSMC), impacting AI, possibly exacerbated by geopolitical distractions from Iran.
Concerns also rise over private credit's "arrogance," with warnings that small-to-medium businesses may return only 20-40 cents on the dollar, partly because asset managers avoid revaluing private companies downwards to protect their fees. The predicted crisis stems from the complex interplay of all these issues, not just one.
Stocks Skyrocket as Oil Drops
Initial market optimism from a nearly $2 oil price drop is fragile. Oil executives warn the fuel crunch will worsen due to the Iran war, with major CEOs predicting continued volatility and price increases. Geopolitically, Iran's Supreme Leader appointed an aggressive former IRGC commander as military advisor, escalating tensions. The private credit market shows significant concerns: executives are downplaying an exodus of money, and a co-president warns of "arrogance" and low returns for some businesses. Fund managers have an incentive not to revalue assets downwards to protect fees. The $42 billion Cliffwater Corporate Lending Fund is now limiting redemptions, holding thousands of opaque assets. The market remains highly sensitive to oil prices; any rebound quickly turns bearish for stocks.
WRONG: All-In Podcast Just made BIG Mistakes on Iran & AI.
This video corrects inaccuracies from the All-In podcast's March 13th episode. It refutes Chimath's claim that Trump's comments alone caused oil prices to drop; instead, the IEA's planned release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves was the primary driver, a fact largely overlooked by All-In, along with Trump's earlier escalatory remarks.
David Sacks' suggestion of Trump preferring quick, "in-n-out" military operations is contradicted by the deployment of 5,000 Marines to the region, indicating potential escalation. Sacks also exaggerated the humanitarian impact of damaged desalination plants, failing to note that Yemen, comprising a third of the Arabian Peninsula's population, doesn't rely on them. Finally, Israel's social media blackout, glossed over by Sacks, is specifically for military operational security. The podcast's analysis contained significant errors and lacked critical context.
Powell JUST Beat Trump! *Major Case*
A US District Court judge has quashed grand jury subpoenas issued by Attorney General Pyro against Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve Board. Pyro, a Trump appointee, was investigating alleged fraud in the Fed building renovation, claiming it went over budget and could be based on tips or rumors.
The judge ruled the subpoenas constituted "mere harassment" and served an "improper purpose." The court cited numerous public statements from Donald Trump and his administration targeting Powell, concluding the investigation was politically motivated to pressure Powell to lower interest rates or resign. Significantly, when the judge offered the government a private opportunity to present evidence justifying the subpoenas, they declined to provide any.
Attorney General Pyro expressed anger and plans to appeal the decision, a dispute already impacting congressional confirmations.
No opinions for this video.
Amphibious Assault *Troops* ENROUTE to Iran | CRAP
The Pentagon is deploying a Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) of 2,200-4,400 troops to the Middle East. This sea-based force, capable of amphibious assaults, aims to deter Iranian coastal strikes, secure ships, and block mine-laying in the Strait of Hormuz, signaling a significant escalation beyond air power.
This deployment is already impacting markets, with rising oil prices directly correlating to stock market declines. Geopolitically, the situation is complex: the Trump administration recently lifted sanctions on Russian oil sales to lower prices, but this move is now reportedly funding Russia, which Trump acknowledges may be aiding Iran.
Concerns also exist over the US's munitions stockpiles, particularly Tomahawk missiles, despite Trump's claims of "unlimited ammunition." This suggests a potentially prolonged and costly engagement. Bank of America warns that current oil spikes and private credit issues resemble aspects of the 2008 financial crisis.
Everyone Hates This Stock. I Think It's a Screaming Buy
This Monday saw a largely green market, with Meta up 3% on various news. The speaker positions Meta as a potentially undervalued stock, akin to its 2022 lows, despite being a $1.5 trillion company.
Meta's current valuation is heavily influenced by massive capital expenditures in AI infrastructure, data centers, and GPUs. These investments are expected to lead to negative free cash flow for several years, hitting a low in 2026, raising questions about return on investment. Challenges include delays in their Avocado LLM and rumors of significant layoffs, though Meta is also developing in-house AI chips and seeing success with smart glasses, which could drive future AI adoption.
A major development is a new 5-year AI infrastructure agreement between Nebus and Meta. Under this $12 billion deal, Nebus will provide dedicated capacity using Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform, with deployments starting in early 2027. Meta has also committed to purchasing additional compute capacity from Nebus's future clusters, signaling Meta's continued aggressive push into AI.
I Just Bought $3,700 More of These Stocks
The Couch Investing portfolio rose 1.6% last week, outperforming the S&P 500's 2.36% decline. While still down 6.71% year-to-date, it boasts a substantial 134.95% gain since inception.
Key portfolio adjustments include shifting PayPal options to a longer-term bull spread, increasing position size, and awaiting the new CEO's strategy. Nubank (Nu Holdings) is now the top holding, with increased stakes in SoFi and Meta.
A major strategic move under consideration is selling underperforming Pagaya and Duolingo to consolidate into Nubank. The investor sees Nubank as a higher-quality, undervalued business, especially below $14.
Upcoming earnings highlights include Micron and Duolingo on Wednesday, and Alibaba on Thursday.
3 Growth Stocks Won't Be This Cheap For Long (I Might Buy One)
Today's video covers several company earnings and market movements.
Rubrik reported strong Q4 earnings, beating expectations with Cloud ARR up 48% and Subscription ARR up 34%. However, growth is projected to slow in fiscal '27 as accounting tailwinds disappear, though management remains conservative with guidance and expects to beat. Free cash flow is up, and stock-based compensation is decreasing.
UiPath's earnings showed some improvements, with revenue up 13.5% and improving profitability, but not the "real acceleration" anticipated. Its stock initially dropped but recovered slightly.
In broader market news, Meta was down 3% due to reports of delays and underperformance in its latest AI model, sparking speculation about a potential shift in strategy to reduce Capex. Nvidia, a $4.3 trillion company, continues impressive growth around 70% with strong margins, despite a stable stock price for months.
Other market observations included Robinhood being down despite crypto being up, mixed performance among fintechs, and mostly green across neoclouds and semiconductors. The speaker also plans to discuss DLocal, Nu Holdings (noting its fast growth and profitability), and C Limited.
Adobe Has a Bigger Problem Than You Think
Adobe's stock fell 7% after its Q2 earnings, despite reporting solid figures, profitability, and a slight revenue acceleration. The company remains highly profitable with strong margins and increasing free cash flow. AI-specific metrics like AI-first ARR and Firefly showed significant growth.
However, the market reacted negatively due to several factors. The 18-year CEO announced his departure, creating uncertainty amidst intense AI scrutiny. Crucially, Adobe *reaffirmed* its fiscal year 2026 guidance instead of *raising* it, disappointing investors who expected a stronger "AI supercharger" narrative. The market's bearish thesis regarding AI's potential impact on Adobe's business persists, and current data, while positive in some areas, wasn't enough to fully counter these expectations. The declining performance of Adobe's stock business also contributed to investor concerns.
The Stock Market Crash Has Begun - Do THIS ASAP!
The speaker addresses current economic concerns following a US/Israel attack on Iran, which led to Iran blocking critical shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz. This has caused oil prices to skyrocket and markets to react negatively, fearing a prolonged conflict.
However, the speaker emphasizes that market downturns are not unique. Reviewing numerous historical crashes—from the 1907 Panic and Great Depression to the Dot-com Bubble and Great Recession—he highlights a consistent pattern: markets always recover and eventually reach new highs. Despite periodic sell-offs, the S&P 500 shows significant long-term growth.
The key takeaway is not to panic sell. Historically, major geopolitical events have often seen market prices higher six months later. The focus should be on protecting investments while understanding the market's long-term resilience.
The UNTHINKABLE is About to Happen to Stocks | Get READY!
The speaker outlines a strategy to profit from the Iran war, emphasizing building generational wealth through patient, long-term investing, regardless of politics. He highlights initial market spikes in oil (45%) and Palantir, consistent with his predictions.
The core philosophy advocates for patient 5-10 year investing, dismissing mainstream media headlines as gambling, and avoiding holding 100% cash, which guarantees losses due to inflation. Historically, wars present short-term dips (around 30 days) that serve as buying opportunities.
Despite current fears of stagflation (high unemployment and inflation) due to high oil prices and weak job numbers, which limit the Fed's ability to cut rates, the speaker asserts that history shows markets recover. While Iran's disruption of the Strait of Hormuz causes oil price volatility, markets tend to overprice future risks. Over the past 30 years, major indices have seen massive long-term growth despite numerous conflicts, proving wars create temporary buying opportunities, not long-term market crashes.
The ONLY Investing Strategy You Need
The core principle of stock market investing is a "buy and hold" strategy for over 20 years. For long-term investors not planning to cash out soon, short-term market fluctuations are irrelevant. Think of it like buying a TV: if it goes on sale later, you wouldn't panic; you might even buy another. Similarly, if you're consistently buying and not planning to sell, lower stock prices are beneficial as they allow you to acquire more shares at a cheaper rate.
Is Insider Trading Happening On Kalshi?
Prediction markets have shown traders making remarkably accurate bets, such as Lady Gaga and Ricky Martin appearing at the Super Bowl, and even predicting the US invasion of Venezuela. While these raise concerns about insider trading, there's a significant legal distinction. Insider trading laws primarily apply to SEC-regulated stocks and securities. However, prediction markets are classified as derivatives, regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). For derivatives, insider trading is considered a "breach of duty," but the legal bar for conviction is incredibly high, often allowing individuals to avoid prosecution.
No opinions for this video.
Tipping Culture Is Out Of Control!
A new "restaurant service fee" is increasingly appearing on restaurant bills, added on top of existing tips and taxes. This fee is reportedly implemented to address underpaid restaurant staff wages. While technically optional, customers must manually request its removal, creating an awkward situation. The speaker implies that restaurants should adjust menu prices to pay workers fairly rather than imposing this additional, often uncomfortable, charge.
No opinions for this video.
Why Older Cars Are More Reliable….
Older cars are often perceived as more reliable, easier to work on, and cheaper to fix. In contrast, modern cars, while futuristic with features like automated doors, are increasingly complex due to an abundance of motors and electronic components. While these advancements can be nice, they add significant complications, making repairs more difficult and expensive when parts inevitably fail.